This is Part 2 of a 10-part series reviewing the Buffalo Bills ahead of free agency and the NFL Draft in 2024. Follow the series here.
Last offseason, the Buffalo Bills likely thought the 2023 season would be the first without Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer as their starting duo. Lo and behold, free agency worked in their favor, and they re-signed Poyer to give one of the best safety pairings in team history a seventh season together.
Now another year older and with a lot of expiring contracts, the Bills’ safeties could enter their first reset since head coach Sean McDermott arrived in 2017. How did each player fare this season, and how does it impact the team’s offseason dealings?
Using the season-long grades from The Athletic’s film review, we’ve outlined individual grades and analysis of every 2023 player, along with recommendations for how the Bills should conduct their offseason business.
2023 safeties in review
Potential cap savings are approximate and less than $800,000 for the contract that would replace it in the top 51. All contract information comes from Over the Cap.
The team likely expected to have a different starting strong safety in 2023, but when Jordan Poyer’s market did not go the way he wanted, the Bills welcomed him back with open arms on a team-friendly deal that filled an immediate need for a starter. Although he wasn’t as impactful as he had been in previous years for the Bills, Poyer played to the level of his contract as a middle-of-the-road starting safety. Poyer was a quarter of a step slower throughout the 2023 season in the practical safety role, and it was most noticeable in some of the angles he took to the ball carrier that had worked in previous seasons but yielded bigger plays for opponents this season. The Bills found a nice role for him once they were forced into playing more dime looks on obvious passing downs, as Poyer had a more condensed space to cover when dropping down to linebacker while still taking advantage of his excellent instincts. Regardless of a decline in his skill set, Poyer remained a leader and an above-average starter, and his return helped cancel out the learning curve of a new safety had they gone in that direction last offseason.
2024 contract status: $7.72 million cap hit, signed through 2024
2024 dead cap if released: $2 million ($4.92 million in savings)
The Bills were able to sneak one more year with Poyer and Micah Hyde as their starting safeties but under much different terms than in any of the six seasons that came before them. As we pointed out, Poyer was not the same player as he had been in the past, and the same thing went for Hyde in 2023. He made a career of having the instincts to overcome less athleticism than other players at his position. But the combination of his neck injury and losing a quarter of a step turned him into only a slightly above-average starter. Of course, that’s still a solid player to have in the lineup, but it was not one of those years in which Hyde was a high-impact safety capable of causing turnovers in any given game. Now 33, an unrestricted free agent with a history of neck injuries, a minor declining skill set and openly mulling retirement in a way he never has before, it’s looking more likely than not that the Bills will have a new starting free safety in 2024.
2024 contract status: Unrestricted free agent
The Bills welcomed in Taylor Rapp on a one-year prove-it deal after his free-agent market did not go as he had hoped, and they looked to improve their depth while still developing Cam Lewis in the background. Rapp’s initial role in Week 1 was as a nickel corner substitute for Taron Johnson against bigger personnel, but the drop-off between the two was noticeable and the team nixed those plans for the rest of the season. From weeks 2 through 6, Rapp was just a backup safety, getting snaps only due to injury (starting Week 5 for the injured Poyer) or in garbage time when the Bills were blowing out their opponents. But after the Bills didn’t get what they wanted at linebacker without injured starter Matt Milano on third downs, it created a new role for Rapp. On obvious passing downs, the Bills took their outside linebacker, usually Tyrel Dodson, out of the game and brought in Rapp to play at safety while dropping Poyer in the box. Between that role and four starts throughout the year, Rapp was a bit of an unreliable player who was a touch too late on some plays and took some unnecessary personal foul penalties. Rapp wound up being a below-average defender. The Bills could certainly do worse than Rapp, but they should strive for better in 2024.
2024 contract status: Unrestricted free agent
Players with fewer than 200 snaps
The Bills brought Lewis back as a restricted free agent with an eye on making him a key piece of their special teams units and continuing his development at the safety position. In the meantime, Lewis also continued as Johnson’s understudy at nickel corner. Lewis did all of these tasks extremely well and was a better and more consistent performer than Rapp when given the chance to play a similar role. Still 26, Lewis appears to be an ascending player in the prime of his career.
2024 contract status: Unrestricted free agent
After a remarkable comeback to the playing field, the Bills kept Damar Hamlin on the periphery of their safety depth chart all season. He was a healthy scratch in 12 of their 19 games, getting in only when one of the top four was injured and could not play. When active, he averaged 4.3 defensive snaps per game. Hamlin likely will be on the roster bubble in 2024 and might even be a trade candidate.
2024 contract status: $1.10 million cap hit, signed through 2024
2024 dead cap if released: $40,000 ($255,000 in savings)
*Kendall Williamson signed a reserve/futures deal. He did not play for Buffalo in 2023.
Recommendations for 2024 offseason at safety
1. Keep Poyer. But if the Bills can find an upgrade at strong safety in free agency for a good price, release him.
You’ll notice a lot of conditional recommendations here, but that’s because everything at the safety position should be in flux, depending on what’s available. The Bills need to invest smartly in the future and keep all options on the table at the position. That begins with Poyer, who indeed lost a step last year and did not have the same impact as earlier in his Bills career. Regardless, he’s on a manageable deal for a starter, has institutional knowledge of the scheme and can significantly help first-year defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, as the two have an excellent rapport from their years working together. If nothing emerges on the safety market, the Bills should feel good enough to keep him and stagger the exits of Hyde and Poyer if they can’t find an upgrade.
However, if the market falls flat for a free-agent strong safety worthy of a long-term investment, the Bills shouldn’t let Poyer be the reason they stay away. It would make sense from a cap perspective because the Bills could take the $5.7 million in savings from releasing Poyer and immediately apply it to the potential cap hit for the new signing. The structure of the new player’s contract would likely have the first-year cap hit be right around that $5.7 million mark, so it’s not as though they’d have to create a bunch of new cap room. The Bills should only do this for the right player, though, and someone who could be the short-term and long-term backbone safety.
2. Re-sign Lewis to a three-year deal
Regardless of what happens with Poyer, Lewis should be a priority for the Bills this offseason because of everything he does on the field for them. Among special teams, safety and backup nickel responsibilities, this is a three-use player in their scheme, and he’s only entering his age-27 season. Getting Lewis signed to a three-year deal gives the Bills an option for a player to compete to start at free safety in 2024 while taking pressure off whichever other addition they make at the position to play immediately next season. Then, once Lewis is no longer needed in the starting competition, they still have him in that multi-functional role to help the team. Without much starting experience, they should be able to sign him to a modest contract without spilling too much cap space.
3. Draft a safety between Rounds 2 and 5, either position
The Bills have neglected the safety position in the draft since general manager Brandon Beane and McDermott arrived, but this year is the time for them to invest in one with a higher pick than they ever have before. Safety is one of those positions in the draft where the best players tend to drop due to positional values being higher elsewhere. That means the Bills can find a good safety prospect outside of the first round, and considering their history of development with defensive backs, they should be able to get the most out of that player. The Bills are projected to have four selections between Rounds 2 and 5, which feels like the right time to finally strike for a potential long-term starter.
The “either position” notation changes if the Bills move on from Poyer because if they sign a strong safety in free agency, the need to invest in one in the draft goes way down the priority list. If they sign a strong safety in free agency, the draft pick should be a free safety type whose strength is with instincts, range and playmaking.
4. Sign a free agent to a one-year prove-it deal after the draft
Why after the draft? Multiple reasons. First, it doesn’t put the Bills in a box of which type of safety position or skill set to target in the draft. Assuming they keep Poyer, the draft pick at the position is the most important acquisition of the summer and should be prioritized. Second, once the Bills know which position they’ve drafted, they can target a one-year free agent either to serve as depth to Poyer and an insurance option for injury or poor play at strong safety or to create a summer competition with Lewis to be the starter at free safety. Third, after the draft, a signed free agent does not count against the 2025 compensatory formula, and the Bills have multiple players (Gabe Davis, A.J. Epenesa, Leonard Floyd, Tyrel Dodson) who could qualify as losses. If the Bills move on from Poyer, this should be a strong safety for depth purposes.
Bills safety depth chart after proposed offseason (with Poyer)
Bills safety depth chart after proposed offseason (without Poyer)
(Top photo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer: Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)
