2024 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Big day on SEC bubble

(Editor’s note: This is part of the Bracket Central Series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)

Conference tournaments are here and Selection Sunday is nigh, which means Bubble Watch is in full swing.

One day before the bracket is revealed, bid thieves are the big storyline. We know we will already have one in the Atlantic 10 with Dayton out of the mix. Three more are lurking between now and the selection show: North Carolina State in the ACC, Oregon in the Pac-12, and anyone other than Florida Atlantic in the AAC. How those shake out will be critical for a bubble that is nearly at capacity.

NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball Dan Gavitt suggested on Saturday morning that there were “at least another four or five spots” up for grabs as far as at-large bids. That might be overstating it a tad, and will of course depend on how those possible bid thieves shake out, but there are clearly still decisions to be made.

“We have 35 at-larges out of the 36 voted into the field”

NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball, Dan Gavitt, joins @TheAndyKatz to explain the scrubbing process and give a seed line update! pic.twitter.com/RIMaSEuHRQ

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2024

Here’s our best estimation of how the bubble math is shaping up as of Saturday afternoon.

• There will be 22 no-doubt one-bid leagues by Sunday evening.

• The A-10 will get two in with Dayton and a bid thief — that’s 24 spots.

• Give at least five bids to the Big Ten — four at-larges and an auto bid. That’s 29.

• Give at least eight to the Big 12 — seven at-larges and an auto bid. That’s 37.

• Give at least three bids to the Big East — two at-larges and an auto bid. That’s 40.

• Among the possible bid-thief conferences, conservatively earmark at least three for the ACC, two for the Pac-12, seven for the SEC, five for the Mountain West and three for the “others” (Gonzaga, Dayton, FAU). That’s 60.

• For the purposes of this exercise, let’s say that Michigan State, Oklahoma, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas A&M are all above the cut line, regardless of whether any win an automatic bid. That would be 65 of the 68 bracket spots.

• If Oregon, NC State, and/or someone other than FAU win titles, that could be as many as all 68 — and those five assumptions we just listed above will suddenly be sweating it out as well.

• These nine teams are in the mix for any remaining spots: Virginia, Pitt, Wake Forest, Kansas State, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, Indiana State. Of that group, it feels as if Virginia, Pitt, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence and Indiana State have the most realistic at-large odds.

Six teams. As many as three spots. As few as zero. But that’s just how I see it, and there is still plenty to be decided.

I’ll keep the updates coming as the day unfolds.

Automatic qualifiers (out of 32): 16 (1 possible bid thief – Drake)
Locks: 35
Projected to be in: 1
On the bubble: 2
Waiting game: 12

ACC

Movement: We have another potential bid thief lurking: Keep your eyes peeled for NC State.

Virginia avoided a nervy few days of the waiting game with a dramatic overtime win against Boston College on Thursday but couldn’t repeat the formula on Friday, losing to the Wolfpack in OT. The Hoos are a question mark — good performance metrics, meh predictive metrics, 2-6 in Q1 — and currently project to be right on the edge. Personally, I think it will be tough for the committee to justify an at-large spot with just two Q1 wins, which is why UVA will be watching Sunday’s selection show with bated breath.

Oh Pitt. The Panthers came so close, winning 12 of their last 15 entering Friday, including road games at Duke and Virginia and twice over Wake Forest. But a 72-65 loss to No. 1 seed North Carolina in the ACC semifinals on Friday will probably put Pittsburgh on the wrong side of the cut line. Just barely. The predictive metrics are solid and the performance metrics have improved, with a resume average of 46.5 entering Friday. But of the respectable four Q1 wins, only one — at Duke — is in that top tier, and the nonconference strength of schedule is abysmal enough to turn off the committee when the bubble margins are so slim. I’m not ready to stick a fork in the Panthers just yet, so it’s off to the “waiting game” — where the odds are better than Wake’s — but still rather long.

Wake Forest is in trouble. The Demon Deacons were already just below the cut line in a lot of bracket predictions, making Thursday afternoon’s loss Pitt feel like a knockout punch for Steve Forbes and his crew. The metrics have been Wake’s saving grace thus far, but it’s tough to see a path for this team.

Big Ten

Movement: Michigan State, one of the most divisive teams all season in terms of its metrics, is almost certainly in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large after Friday’s loss to Purdue. Considering they were projected as a 10-seed in that “last four byes” grouping entering the day, I’m going to move the Spartans to the “waiting game” for now, just to be safe until the rest of the day plays out and the metrics update on Saturday. But it would be an historic snub from a metrics standpoint if they are somehow left out. MSU’s resume still won’t blow anyone away, and I join so many others who are confounded by how good the predictive metrics continue to look, but with a bubble this soft, it will take significant chaos for the Spartans to drop.

So long, Buckeyes. Ohio State ascended to the bubble when it won six of seven after firing Chris Holtmann, including wins over Purdue, Nebraska and at Michigan State to add to Alabama on a neutral floor. But a three-point loss to Illinois on Friday more than likely leaves the Buckeyes on the outside looking in. A team sheet with a NET and strength of record in the 50s, nonconference strength of schedule in the 240s and three Q1 wins is unlikely to be enough. Heck of a surge by Ohio State, and interim Jake Diebler probably coached his way into a job, whether in Columbus or elsewhere. But too little too late as far as the bracket is concerned.

Big 12

Movement: TCU nabbed a somewhat misleading Q1 win over a depleted Oklahoma squad on Day 2 of the Big 12 tournament. The Sooners were down three of their top six scorers on Wednesday, including leading scorer Javian McCollum, who re-aggravated a shoulder injury last week. Despite the circumstances, the victory is enough to lock in the Frogs, who advance to face Houston on Thursday in Kansas City.

Oklahoma should still be in the field as well, but we’re going to shift them to “waiting game” for the time being, at least until we see how things shake out with a few more of these bubble teams and potential bid thieves.

That should be curtains for Kansas State’s at-large hopes after the loss to Iowa State on Thursday, but until we get a clearer sense of how many bid thieves emerge, we’ll leave the Wildcats on the “waiting game” line.

Big East

Movement: Good luck to the committee when parsing these Big East bubble teams. Villanova and St. John’s have the edge in predictive metrics. Seton Hall and Providence have more Q1 wins and slightly stronger resume metrics. Nova beat Creighton away and North Carolina and Texas Tech on neutral floors but also lost to Saint Joe’s, Drexel and Penn in nonconference. The Friars beat Creighton twice, Marquette and Wisconsin, but also played 11 Quad 4 games. None of the Johnnies wins jump off the team sheet, but they would be a near-unprecedented snub in terms of their NET ranking. You can make a case for or against any of them, if you try hard enough.

One night after an uninspiring win over DePaul, Villanova put up a valiant effort, falling in overtime to Marquette. That probably burst the Wildcats’ very resilient bubble, but the strength of schedule and predictive numbers are enough to leave Kyle Neptune’s squad in the “waiting game.”

Nova joins Seton Hall, which will be white-knuckling it until Sunday evening after St. John’s beat them by 19 in the Big East tournament. The Pirates are still in according to most projections, but as other bubble teams and bid thieves stay alive, it’s been a stressful few days for the Pirates.

And now the Johnnies will have to wait and see as well. St. John’s may have played itself into the field with the win over Seton Hall, but it’s not quite enough to lift above the “waiting game” line following Friday’s loss to UConn. The predictive metrics are great, but three Q1 wins — the best being Creighton at home — leaves a lot to be desired.

Providence seemed to be squarely in that “last four in/first four out” mix ahead of Friday’s loss to Marquette. That one shouldn’t hurt the resume, but it all depends on what the committee values. And how those other bubble teams and bid thieves do over the next couple of days.

Pac-12

Movement: Props to Colorado. A semifinal win over Washington State on Friday gives the Buffs a fourth Q1 win, a 10-9 record in the top two quadrants, and further boosts the school’s already-stellar metrics. I still feel like the metrics are inflated — the WSU victory is immediately and by far the best one of the season. But as I wrote a couple weeks ago, metrics have proven to be a reliable guide in the past, and the committee has yet to prove it will keep out a team with Colorado’s profile. We’ll put them on the bubble for now, ahead of today’s Pac-12 title game that could remove all doubts.

And if not? Bid thief. Oregon’s win over Arizona on Friday isn’t enough to put the Ducks on the bubble. It does, however, put Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Bubble teams will be rooting hard against the Ducks on Saturday as they try to sneak into the dance.

SEC

Movement: Texas A&M comes up short in the SEC semis against Florida despite a halftime lead, losing 95-90 in Nashville. The Aggies are now 7-7 in Q1 — more wins than any other team on the bubble, and only 10 other teams in all Division I — and 13-9 in the top two quadrants, along with great SOS metrics. The biggest thing holding it back is a 2-5 record in Q3. I think they are safely above the cut line, though auto bids for Colorado and/or New Mexico could send the Aggies to Dayton for a play-in game. Either way, the threat of bid thieves and limited remaining at-large spots will make for a long day of waiting on Sunday.

Congrats to Mississippi State, which climbs from “on the bubble” to a lock courtesy its win over Tennessee on Friday. The Bulldogs dropped to the bubble with four straight losses to end the regular season, but re-solidified itself back into the bracket by knocking off the Vols and advancing to the SEC semis. They were probably in regardless, but that result removes all doubt.

Mountain West

Movement: What am I missing with the Lobos? I thought New Mexico escaped bubble trouble with back-to-back wins over Boise State and Colorado State. Not a lock quite yet, but enough to be safe win or lose against San Diego State in the Mountain West title game today, even with one Q4 loss on the resume. Yet many projections still have the Lobos in the cut-line danger zone. The only way I see that happening is if NM loses to SDSU while Oregon, NC State, and someone in the AAC all steal bids. So I suppose it’s possible. We’ll see.

Others

Movement: A Q3 semifinal matchup with Temple will keep FAU on the “projected to be in” line for another day. The Owls are closer to a lock than the bubble, but the AAC remains a possible bid-thief conference.

We definitely have a bid thief in the Atlantic 10. Or at least we will come Sunday. No. 6 seed Duquesne defeated No. 3 seed Dayton, 65-57 on Thursday, knocking the A-10’s lone lock out of the conference tournament. Despite finishing third in the regular season, the Flyers were the only legit at-large candidate for the league, a reality reinforced when 1-seed Richmond and 2-seed Loyola Chicago both lost earlier on Thursday. Now bubble teams everywhere are cursing the Flyers, who opened the door for either Saint Joseph’s, VCU, St. Bonaventure or the Dukes — four teams with three combined Q1 wins — to sneak into the NCAA Tournament via the auto bid.

That’s one less spot up for grabs, and Indiana State could suffer for it after losing to Drake in a tightly contested MVC title game. It was the ideal scenario for the league to get two teams in, but the Sycamores have had to sit idle as other bubble teams and bid thieves percolate.

Princeton’s upset loss to Brown in Ivy Madness — the first time a No. 4 seed has beaten the No. 1 seed — knocks the Tigers off the bubble line. It was unlikely the Ivy League would get an at-large anyway, but the only chance would have been a close loss for Princeton in the title game

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(Top photo of Texas A&M’s Andersson Garcia and Mississippi State’s Tolu Smith and Shawn Jones Jr: Matthew Maxey / AP and Christopher Hanewinckel / USA Today)